DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate AG
Original-Research: DEMIRE AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD

Original-Research: DEMIRE AG – von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu DEMIRE AG

Unternehmen: DEMIRE AG
ISIN: DE000A0XFSF0

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 24.11.2023
Kursziel: € 1,20
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Another guidance adjustment following lack of disposals; chg.

As already anticipated in our recent earnings review, DEMIRE yesterday
updated its FY guidance for a second time this year as management now
expects a lower number of property disposals than what was planned at the
beginning of the year. As this consequently results in a larger asset base,
rental income as well as FFO are now expected to come in higher.

Management now guides for rental income of € 78-80m (vs € 74.5-76.5m
before; eNuW old: € 77.9m) and FFO of € 35-37m (vs € 33-35m before; eNuW
old: € 34m). After the company already adjusted its outlook in July
following the withdrawal of the LogPark buyer, this has been the second
guidance update this year. Initially, management targeted a rental income
range of € 71-73m and FFO of € 30-32m. According to our estimates, this
would have required disposals to the tune of > € 300m throughout the year
vs € 69m as of Q3.

The lower sales volume is seen to be mainly attributable to the de facto
standstill on the real estate transaction market, as buyers do have little
to none acting pressure due to the lack of competition. Still, management
remains confident that the disposal of the LogPark will still be signed
this year, although a closing and thus the related cash inflow (eNuW: €
110m gross; book value of € 121m) will likely not take place before mid Q1.

While the delayed disposals are causing higher rental income and thus cash
flows on the one hand, it also means that significant cash inflows, which
would have been vital to at least partly release some of the refinancing
pressure, are not available.

That said and despite the recent rating downgrade by Moody’s, we remain
confident that the company will announce a solution on the refinancing
issue in the course of H1’24, as the dialogue with the holders of the
corporate bond (€ 499m due in 10/24) intensified in recent weeks. In our
view, a prolongation at either an increased coupon or at a higher nominal
value appears as the most likely option. To further shore up liquidity, we
expect at least parts of the € 266m worth of LOIs to materialize in the
first quarters of 2024e.

As visibility remains low regarding the outcome of the refinancing process,
we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 1.20 based
on NAV and DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28403.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG – Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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