Achiko AG
Original-Research: Achiko AG (von Sphene Capital GmbH): Sell

Original-Research: Achiko AG – von Sphene Capital GmbH

Einstufung von Sphene Capital GmbH zu Achiko AG

Unternehmen: Achiko AG
ISIN: CH0522213468

Anlass der Studie: Update Report
Empfehlung: Sell
seit: 30.09.2020
Kursziel: CHF 0,03 (bisher USD 1,10)
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 24 Monate
Letzte Ratingänderung: 30.09.2020, vormals Buy
Analyst: Peter Hasler

Where has the business model gone? Downgrade to Sell

The half-year report shows that not much has remained of the original core
business with which Achiko went public in 2019. Revenues in the first half
of 2020 amounted to USD 2.7 million, compared to USD 3.6 million in the
same period last year (-24.6% YoY). While no explanation was given for the
drop in sales, Achiko is, according to our estimates, also far from
reaching the guidance published only in April 2020, which had envisaged
sales of USD 50 million for 2020e and has not been revoked since then. In
our view, this not only raises the question if Achiko’s management board
has fulfilled its disclosure obligations that must be complied with since
listing commenced at the SIX Swiss Exchange, but also whether the payment
subdivision, which was a crucial part of the equity story at the time of
the IPO, ever had a competitive set-up. Notwithstanding the unsatisfactory
earnings performance of the former core business, management has in our
view been speculating about expanding the single-product payments business
into a ‘global, multifaceted payments, entertainment, health and community
platform’ even in its most recent company presentations. However, apart
from the extensive use of media buzzwords such as ‘platform strategy’ or
‘ecosystem for growth’, which according to the management are supposed to
address a market of 2.6 billion people within the next three years, not
much of these expansions plans seem to be left.

In view of what has been achieved so far, we do not give the current
management any further credibility that it will succeed in entering a new
market with its ‘telehealth platform’. Rather, we consider the aspired
entry into the SARS CoV-2 testing (‘Gumnuts’) and an ecosystem called Teman
Sehat, translated ‘Health Buddy’, for which management has not even tried
to explain how revenues or profits would be generated, as a further attempt
to occupy buzzwords hyped up on the stock exchange and thus artificially
generating demand in the share.

Accordingly, we are drastically reducing our earnings estimates, which have
so far been described by the management as ‘dramatically conservative’.
Instead of USD 22.5 million, we now expect 2020e revenues of USD 5.9
million (-74.0% vs. our previous estimates). With this, Achiko is far from
becoming profitable in the current and the following fiscal year, in our
view. After reworking our financial model, we are deriving a price target
of CHF 0.03 (previously USD 1.10) from our three-phase discounted cash flow
model. Compared to the last closing price of CHF 0.47, this represents an
expected price risk of -93.5%. We therefore cut our rating to Sell from
Buy.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/21682.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA
+49(89)74443558/ +49(152)31764553
peter-thilo.hasler@sphene-capital.de

——————-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-


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