Marley Spoon Group SE
Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE – von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu Marley Spoon Group SE

Unternehmen: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 15.02.2024
Kursziel: 8.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler

Strategic transactions closed; est. & PT chg.

Marley Spoon Group (‘MSG’) closed the strategic transactions announced on
January 31st. Here is what you need to know:

Acquisition of BistroMD. MSG closed the acquisition of BistroMD, a leading
doctor-designed ready-toeat (RTE) meal plan company in the US (c. € 35m
revenues in 2023), offering MSG an opportunity to use its own data and
technology platform to generate synergies and performance improvements over
time. While BistroMD should currently be loss-making due to lack of
sufficient scale (c. 30% contribution margin, eNuW), fulfilment, G&A, and
marketing expenses are seen to decrease significantly from currently c. €
27.5m (eNuW) to c. € 20m by 2025e (eNuW) thanks to the integration into
MSG’s platform. In sum, we regard BistroMD as a strategically sensible
add-on as it adds a double-digit growing RTE business that capitalizes on
the increasing health & wellness consciousness of the American consumer.

Depending on the underlying share price assumed, the acquisition price of
around € 15m (eNuW) comprises c. € 1113m in debt as well as 1.4m MSG
shares, along with an earn-out of up to 1.2m additional shares (12 months
post-closing), and 450k warrants with strike prices ranging from € 15 to €
20. Assuming a share price of € 2.00, MSG acquires BistroMD at an EV/Sales
FY23 multiple 0.43x, a 48% premium to MSG’s own current valuation of 0.29x.

Partnership with FreshRealm. Furthermore, MSG entered into a 7-year
strategic partnership for manufacturing and fulfilment with FreshRealm by
selling its US operating assets for € 22m to FreshRealm, which will operate
the fulfilment centre and become MSG’s exclusive operations partner in the
US. This provides Marley Spoon with a scalable and capitalefficient way of
operating in the US, delegating assetheavy fulfilment and warehouse
operations (back-end) to an experienced partner while continuing to focus
its investments on customer-facing competencies (front-end). Net cost
savings are seen to amount to c. € 12m in G&A and should thus favourably
impact margins going forward.

Debt terms & capital raise. Both deals are supported by an c. € 8m equity
raise through c. 2m treasury shares at € 4.00 per share. Moreover, Runway,
the company’s biggest debtholder, supports these transactions and agreed to
a 12-months extension of the debt facilities’ interest-only period to
January 2026 and maturity date to June 2027. Upon closure of the
transactions, MSG will repay Runway € 10.3m of the outstanding loan
balance. Importantly, the asset sale, capital raise, and debt facility
extension provide Marley Spoon with ample breathing room to reinvigorate
its meal-kit and adjacent operations as well as time to successfully
integrate its recent acquisitions.

Growth outlook. Including the financial impact of the transactions
described above, Marley Spoon is well-positioned to return to profitable
topline growth, reaching c. € 384m sales (+16.9% yoy, eNuW) and c. € 2m
operating EBITDA (+1.4ppts yoy, eNuW) in FY24e. This should mainly be
driven by a return to active customer growth to c. 211k (+ 12% yoy, eNuW),
and leverage in its multi-region and multi-brand meal kit platform to

1. further penetrate the still vastly underpenetrated $ 7tn global food &
grocery market, harnessing deep-seated consumer trends like convenience and
wellness;
2. grow basket size via more differentiated service offerings (AI-driven
recipe development and ranking for +100 weekly recipe options);
3. and realize revenue and cost synergies from its newly acquired BistroMD
and FreshRealm partnerships going forward.

The Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.28x EV/Sales 2024e,
leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of € 8.00 (old: €
8.60) based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28897.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG – Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

——————-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.