USU Software AG
Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: USU Software AG – von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG

Unternehmen: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 23.11.2023
Kursziel: € 30,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Final Q3 in line with est. amid sequential improvements; chg.

Yesterday, USU released a solid set of Q3 results, showing sequential
improvements compared to the second quarter despite an ongoing
underperformance of license revenues.

Q3 sales increased 4.2% qoq to € 32.9 (eNuW: € 33.3m), implying a muted 1%
yoy growth against a tough comparable base. Main drivers were the
continuously strong growth in SaaS sales of 15.1% yoy to € 4.3m (eNuW: €
4.6m) as well as the consulting business, which grew 12% yoy to € 20.6m
(eNuW: € 20.2m) thanks to the continuing strong demand for digitization
services. However, this could not fully compensate for the again weak
license sales, which declined 67% yoy to € 1.3m (eNuW: € 1.4m), due to
prolonged sales cycles.

On this basis as well as due to continuously increased R&D expenses in
connection with the SaaS platform and AI projects, Q3 EBITDA steeply
declined by 43% yoy to € 2.5m (eNuW: € 2.9m). Notably, USU introduced an
employee stock option program in Q3 following the 2022 share buyback.
Although not cash relevant, this marks a specific extraordinary expense
under IFRS, which is why management decided to henceforth report an
adjusted EBITDA figure. For Q3, adjusted EBITDA amounted to € 2.8m. Going
forward, this will also include the newly introduced share program for
executives, which is fed by Udo Strehl’s personal stock portfolio. As a
result, both the company’s FY as well as the mid-term guidance now refer to
adjusted EBITDA.

Speaking of which, management confirmed its FY outlook of € 132-139m sales
(eNuW: € 133m) and now adjusted EBITDA of € 13-15m (eNuW: € 13.1m). While
this looks well achievable on the top-line (+1.6% yoy implied Q4 growth at
low end), license sales (eNuW: -50% yoy to € 2.2m) need to pick up the pace
in Q4 in order to reach to bottom-line target (12.4% implied Q4 margin at
low end).

Overall, the case remains fully intact, in our view. Mind you, that a
temporary decline in profitability was always in the cards given the lower
initial margin of SaaS contracts compared to license sales (full payment at
closing). However, as the annual SaaS payments are seen to equal the
one-time license costs (+maintenance) after c. 3 years and SaaS sales
showing strong growth (25% CAGR ’21‘ 25e), margins are seen strongly expand
from 2025e onwards, while 2024e is seen to be another transition year.

BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28377.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG
Mittelweg 16-17
20148 Hamburg
Germany
info@nuways-ag.com
www.nuways-ag.com

——————-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-


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